Is the World Drifting Toward a U.S.-China Showdown Over Taiwan?

As Taiwan prepares for the possibility of invasion and China increases military pressure around the island, a decades-old dispute is becoming one of the world's most dangerous geopolitical flashpoints.

TAIPEI, Taiwan — For 10 days this month, Taiwan practiced for a war it hopes will never come.

Soldiers deployed to cities and coastal positions. Reservists reported for duty. Fighter bases practiced operating after simulated attacks, while civilians participated in air-raid exercises. Authorities even deliberately slowed mobile internet service in some areas to test how the island might function if communications were disrupted during a conflict.

The annual Han Kuang military exercises, which concluded Aug. 14, have become increasingly realistic as Taiwan prepares for the possibility of a Chinese blockade or invasion.

China dismissed the exercises as a “wasteful charade,” accusing Taiwan's government of creating panic while warning that the People's Liberation Army remains prepared to counter Taiwanese separatism and foreign intervention.

Behind the rhetoric is a far more consequential question: Could Taiwan eventually trigger a military confrontation between China and the United States?

China considers Taiwan part of its territory and has never renounced the use of force to bring the democratically governed island under its control. Taiwan rejects Beijing's sovereignty claims and maintains that its future should be decided by its people.

For decades, the two sides have existed within an uneasy status quo. But military pressure around Taiwan has increased. Chinese warplanes and naval vessels routinely operate near the island, and Beijing conducted live-fire exercises in the Taiwan Strait in July.

Taiwan is responding by preparing for a conflict that might not begin with a conventional invasion.

This year's Han Kuang exercises mobilized roughly 20,000 reservists and emphasized prolonged combat, communications failures and coastal defense. Military planners also rehearsed scenarios in which China could disguise preparations for an attack as routine exercises.

A conflict could instead begin with cyberattacks, economic pressure, missile strikes or a naval blockade intended to isolate Taiwan.

For Washington, that creates an increasingly difficult dilemma.

The United States does not maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, but it remains the island's most important international supporter and arms supplier. Washington has traditionally maintained deliberate uncertainty over whether American forces would directly defend Taiwan from attack.

Any confrontation could quickly expand beyond the island. U.S. military facilities throughout the Pacific could become involved, raising the possibility of direct combat between the world's two most powerful countries.

The economic consequences could also be enormous. Taiwan occupies a crucial position in the global semiconductor industry and sits near major international shipping routes. A blockade or war could disrupt technology manufacturing and global trade.

War is far from inevitable. China says it prefers peaceful reunification, while Taiwan argues that preparing for war is the best way to prevent one.

That is the increasingly dangerous paradox across the Taiwan Strait: China is preparing to take Taiwan, Taiwan is preparing to resist, and the United States is preparing for a confrontation all three countries insist they hope will never happen.